Sunday, March 30, 2008

 

NYT: The War on Error

 
 
Magnolia Pictures

Mass destruction: A scene from the 2007 Iraq war documentary "No End in Sight."

 

 
 
March 30, 2008

The War on Error

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NO END IN SIGHT

Iraq's Descent Into Chaos.

By Charles Ferguson.

Illustrated. 641 pp. PublicAffairs. Paper, $17.95.

There are really two debates going on about the Iraq war, but only one of them is being heard at the present time. Was the decision to invade a mistake from the beginning? For the most part, Democrats say yes and Republicans say no. The other debate centers on the invasion's aftermath. Is the current debacle the result not of the decision to overthrow Saddam Hussein but of the inept policies that followed? Since this question suggests that success in Iraq was always a possibility, it is generally being ignored both by Democrats, who don't want to muddy their antiwar position, and by Republicans, unwilling to face up to the Bush administration's serial failings.

Charles Ferguson's 2007 documentary, "No End in Sight," was unusual because it focused on this second question. It was a powerful and heartbreaking film. Ferguson introduced us to well-intentioned, intelligent people who took the White House at its word and went to Iraq to build a decent postwar society. He showed how they had their legs cut out from under them every step of the way by arrogant ideologues in Washington. Now he has taken the material he collected from more than 50 interviews, expanded and updated it with additional interviews, added his own interpolated commentary and a charming introduction, and produced a book also titled "No End in Sight" that, in its way, is as powerful as his movie, and equally heartbreaking.

With the leisure that a book affords, a reader comes to understand why both versions of "No End in Sight" work so well. Ferguson is an expert interviewer — smart, attentive, persistent. He does his homework before he sits down with a subject so that he can ask the right questions. Most important, he is no partisan (he was an ambivalent supporter of the war). Ferguson is genuinely interested in getting at the truth. He wants to know exactly what went wrong.

Many of the top figures — L. Paul Bremer, Donald Rumsfeld, Colin Powell, Paul Wolfowitz — refused to talk to him, but Ferguson still managed to gather a comprehensive cross section of policy makers, bureaucrats, journalists, field operatives and foot soldiers, not to mention Iraqis. Here is A. Heather Coyne, who spent 15 months in Iraq as a civil affairs officer with the Army. Coyne, who knew Arabic, went to Iraq "on a high because we really believed in what we were doing." Then she watched as everything went wrong. When she wanted to print up documents to promote a street-cleaning program, she was told: "That's a great idea. But we don't have any ability to print certificates" — which summed up for her all the failures of the American effort. "I still believe that this could have worked," she says. "If you'd really had the capability, and the materials, and the relationships, and the expertise, and the trained staff, and the equipment, and everything else you needed."

Here, too, is Barbara Bodine, a career Foreign Service officer and former ambassador to Yemen, charged with overseeing the administration of Baghdad during the first few months of the occupation. She arrived after the looting had begun and found no personnel, no desks, no telephones. "We didn't know who to call; we didn't know where to go. I was responsible, for example, for Baghdad City. It wasn't even clear to us where the mayoralty was." Bodine had originally opposed the war, but she too believes that with the right planning, the occupation could have succeeded.

"No End in Sight" reads like a primer on incompetence, a catalog of bungling. "There were 500 ways to do it wrong, and two or three ways to do it right," Bodine tells Ferguson. "What we didn't understand is that we were gonna go through all 500."

Doing it wrong started with the looting. This wasn't a matter of thieves walking off with toasters and television sets. What happened in Baghdad was of an entirely different magnitude, a descent into nihilism that lasted for weeks, even months. Stores, schools, hospitals were destroyed; at least 16 of 23 government ministries were gutted. Organized criminals brought in industrial cranes to haul off parts of a power plant. Yet the instructions from Washington were not to interfere. "Freedom's untidy," Rumsfeld intoned. The result was a loss of Iraqi trust that has never been regained.

The worst mistake, however, was the disbanding of the Iraqi Army in May 2003, two months after the invasion. This was a decision made by only a few men — specifically Bremer in his capacity as the head of the occupation authority, and his aide Walter Slocombe — and against the advice of just about everyone with any on-the-ground knowledge of the situation. (According to Ferguson, it's unclear if President Bush approved of the idea.) Bremer and Slocombe apparently believed that the Iraqi Army had to be rendered powerless, though others explain to Ferguson that Bremer and Slocombe were confusing the army with the Republican Guard. The Guard consisted of Baath Party loyalists; the Iraqi military was a professional force that had always tried to keep its distance from the Hussein regime. When the war began, the army had faded into the countryside, leaving the Guard to do the bulk of the fighting. Once the Americans prevailed, according to Lawrence Wilkerson, Colin Powell's chief of staff, Iraqi military officers indicated their willingness to work with the occupiers, but instead they and their troops were stripped of their positions and careers. An estimated 500,000 to 800,000 men, 7 to 10 percent of the Iraqi work force, lost their jobs. And they had guns. "More than any other single action," Ferguson says, the order to disband the army "created the Iraqi insurgency."

And so it went — through the appointment of the White House's political cronies rather than experienced technocrats; through the continued shortage of men and resources; through the contradictory policies and ever more desperate improvisations; through the amateurish inefficiencies and absolutely astounding levels of corruption; through ethnic cleansings and wanton killings and terrorist bombs — down to 2007 and the start of the surge. Ferguson's final, and most timely, section moves beyond his film, and takes as its title the question everyone is left asking: "Where Do We Go From Here?"

Ferguson doesn't have an answer, but he supplies the kind of essential information his readers will need to come up with one. For example, most of his interviewees, American and Iraqi alike, are satisfied that the surge has worked to reduce violence in the short term, but are skeptical about the long term. The underlying structural divisions threatening to tear Iraq apart are still in place, and in some instances may have gotten worse. The Iraqi office manager for The Washington Post explains that the insurgents have lowered their level of fighting but are simply waiting for the Americans to leave. Ferguson's Kurdish bodyguard tells him the United States has actually weakened the central government by working with local Sunni militias that feel no allegiance beyond their particular tribes and neighborhoods. "They don't care about the government. And the government, they don't have any power over what's going on." Another informant says Washington has been "promoting warlordism." Ferguson reports the "stunningly unanimous opinion" among his interviewees "that the surge is producing no lasting military or security benefit whatsoever."

And if the Americans withdraw? Most of the people Ferguson talked to believe the result would be full-scale civil war; one analyst speaks of three or four civil wars at once. Even some of those who favor withdrawal accept the likelihood of a blood bath. "You would see the Sunnis of Baghdad certainly getting finished off quick," says one. Another, an American specialist on democracy and development obviously wearied by Iraq, says the mere threat of withdrawal might bring the rival factions together, but if not, "they can have their civil war."

It's not that simple, however. A bloody civil war, several experts observe, probably would not be limited to Iraq. Neighboring countries would almost inevitably be drawn in, and the entire region could be engulfed in chaos. Iran would support the Shiites, while Saudi Arabia, Jordan and possibly Egypt would back the Sunnis. Turkey, meanwhile, might become more deeply enmeshed in Iraq's Kurdish areas. Juan Cole, a historian at the University of Michigan, was an influential opponent of the war who now opposes a pullout. He's not the only one. Cole points out that a proxy war between Iran and Saudi Arabia could endanger the world's oil supplies. "Iraq is not like Vietnam, where the U.S. could withdraw precipitately and altogether and let the chips fall where they may. ... The U.S. has destabilized the cockpit of the world economy. The plane is now spiraling down."

Yet those urging a continued American presence are short on solutions for the long term. Partition claims few adherents, not only because most Iraqis oppose it — Iraq's United Nations ambassador for part of 2007 says, "Nobody in Iraq is fighting to partition the country" — but also because Iraq's neighbors worry how partition would be received by their own restless minorities. A regional conference including Iran and Syria has its supporters, though none who are convinced it would accomplish very much. Muddling through with an ineffectual government that wins the confidence of no one is the best that some of the interviewees can come up with, but without a coherent plan for creating a viable central authority, this is a policy that truly has "no end in sight." John McCain's comment that the United States could be in Iraq for 100 years is mudling through's reductio ad absurdum.

Many Iraqis favor a military coup. An Iraqi journalist says, "Going back to the dictatorship definitely would help," and this view, Ferguson writes, "is surprisingly popular among educated, secular Iraqis." It's easy to understand why. Since 1920, when it was created, the Iraqi Army has been a national, nonsectarian institution with a broad degree of popular support. Armies in the region have often played a stabilizing and modernizing role, as the next-door example of Turkey demonstrates. The real question is whether the army could be reconstituted in anything like its traditional form.

Abetting a coup against an elected government is no one's idea of a happy ending. According to one Iraqi sympathetic to the coup suggestion, it would constitute a second American invasion, only from the inside. But as the former United Nations ambassador explains to Ferguson, "If you are a military officer looking at this political class unable to make basic decisions ... the temptation must be great to think you can't do it any worse."

Barry Gewen is an editor at the Book Review.


Thursday, March 27, 2008

 

The Star: Is Bush the worst U.S. president ever?


Tmate080327



Is Bush the worst U.S. president ever?


SCOTT APPLEWHITE/AP
U.S. President George W. Bush pauses in the Oval Office on Sept. 13, 2007 after addressing the nation on his strategy for Iraq.

Email Story


Historians might argue over ranking, but there's no doubt he has been an unmitigated disaster
Mar 22, 2008 04:30 AM

Columnist

Historians will argue over whether George W. Bush is the worst president the United States has ever endured. But that is not the point. Five years after Bush's ill-starred invasion of Iraq, three years after Hurricane Katrina and seven months into the unravelling of the U.S. financial system, the point is that the 43rd president of the United States – regardless of his ranking in the pantheon – is a unique and unmitigated disaster.

Whether Bush is more of a warmonger than James Polk, who in 1846 manufactured a crisis with Mexico in order to seize what is now California, more tolerant of cronyism than poker-playing Warren Harding (1921 to 1923), or more unlucky than William Harrison (he died after catching cold at his 1841 inauguration) is interesting but irrelevant. What we do know is that this president, this "decider" (to use his favoured term), decided his way into a war that has destroyed the nation he was allegedly trying to free, destabilized further an already rickety Middle East and given Islamic terrorism a whole new raison d'etre.

Bush is not the first U.S. president to take a cavalier attitude to civil liberties. Abraham Lincoln did so during the Civil War, while modern presidents reaching back to at least John Kennedy and Dwight Eisenhower have sanctioned the use of illegal assassination.

During the 1960s, when Bush was still a hard-drinking frat boy, American experts operating under presidential authority were teaching enhanced torture techniques to their Latin American counterparts. Bush didn't initiate the practice of extraordinary rendition – sending suspects abroad to be tortured. That honour goes to Bill Clinton.

In short, the road to Abu Ghraib and Guantanamo Bay was open well before Bush took office in January 2001. But the current president has soared to new heights. His predecessors at least had the grace to be embarrassed about dabbling on the dark side. By contrast, Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney positively gloat about their attempts to subvert human rights.

True, most of the bad press against Bush stems less from his actions themselves than from the fact that they have failed. Had Lincoln lost the Civil War, history might well have treated him as a bum. Had the U.S. succeeded in Iraq and Afghanistan, Bush might be considered one of America's great presidents.

But Bush did not succeed there, or indeed in most of his efforts. With a few notable exceptions, such as stacking the Supreme Court with conservative justices, his record is one of failure. His attempt to beef up the government-subsidized health-care system for seniors has bogged down in confusion. His thrusts at social security reform were stillborn.

An alleged fiscal conservative, he drove the U.S. treasury into deficit to pay for his wars and tax cuts.

Part of the reason is ideology. Bush did little when Hurricane Katrina destroyed New Orleans, in large part because he does not think governments should involve themselves in matters of social welfare. His efforts in the current financial crisis are equally half-hearted and for much the same reason.

But there is something else, something disturbingly feckless about Bush. This has nothing to do with his malapropisms ("The only way we can win is to leave before the job is done"), his insistence on snuggling into bed early every night or his alarming propensity for bicycle accidents.

At a very basic level, Bush is incompetent. He likes to play at commander-in-chief of the U.S. armed forces. But in any other country a commander-in-chief who orchestrated an adventure as disastrous as the Iraq war would be court-martialled.

He clearly has a native cunning that stands him well in the game of politics. But at a deeper level, there seems to be something missing – a neural disconnect in his brain that at crucial moments causes him to be divorced from the constraints of rational thought. How else to explain the abrupt turnarounds such as his 2003 decision to disband the entire Iraqi army (a decision that fuelled the subsequent insurgency) just a few weeks after agreeing that these forces should be kept intact?

In some public events, he seems fully at ease. But in others – particularly his infrequent, televised press conferences – he seems to be observing events from another dimension.

Among U.S. historians, it has become great sport to rank the country's presidents. Bush vies with many for the title of absolute worst – from Ulysses S. Grant, who oversaw a post-Civil War era so corrupt it was known as Grant's Barbecue, to Richard Nixon of Watergate fame, to Herbert Hoover, the hapless president in charge during the stock market crash of 1929.

But Grant, Hoover and even Nixon did not do as much damage worldwide. Americans may still be debating Bush's legacy. I suspect the rest of the world has made up its mind.


Thomas Walkom's column appears Thursday and Saturday.




Sunday, March 23, 2008

 

NYT: At Least 51 Die in Attacks Across Iraq



Joao Silva for The New York Times

Residents gathered around destroyed vehicles in the Shuala neighborhood of Baghdad after a car bombing.



Published: March 24, 2008

March 24, 2008

At Least 51 Die in Attacks Across Iraq

BAGHDAD — The shelling started just before 6 a.m., mortar fire shaking buildings and sending early risers in the Green Zone here running for shelter. Sirens went off, and loudspeakers blared, "Duck and cover! Duck and cover!" A thick column of gray smoke rose above the embassies and government buildings in the area.

The early morning onslaught on Sunday was one of the fiercest and most sustained attacks on the Green Zone in the past year, and it ushered in a day of violence that claimed the lives of at least 51 Iraqi civilians and soldiers, including two children.

Philip T. Reeker, a spokesman for the American Embassy, said the mortar attacks had caused "no deaths or major injuries" within the Green Zone. He noted that for security reasons, American officials do not release details of such attacks. But one mortar shell fell short of the zone and landed in the Bab al-Sharji neighborhood in central Baghdad, killing one person and wounding five others, according to Iraq's Interior Ministry. Another fell in the Karrada near the house of Vice President Adel Abdul Mahdi, but no casualties were reported, the Iraqi police said.

Witnesses said that the mortar shells — from 6 to 10, according to different accounts — were fired from Baladyat, a Shiite neighborhood in eastern Baghdad.

Several more volleys of mortar fire aimed toward the Green Zone followed during the day, including a series of intense blasts just before 8:30 p.m.

One mortar round landed on the west bank of the Tigris, just outside the Green Zone wall, igniting a large brush fire.

American military officials have in the past blamed such attacks on Shiite militia factions or "special groups" that have received backing from Iran. The factions are thought to be splinter groups within the Mahdi Army militia founded by the Shiite cleric Moktada al-Sadr.

Last month, Mr. Sadr announced the extension of a cease-fire begun last year and said that he would not tolerate any violations of the order.

In the Shuala area of western Baghdad on Sunday, a bomb in a parked car exploded, killing six and wounding at least 10. The explosion tore through the neighborhood's main street of houses and shops.

"We were having our lunch inside the restaurant when we heard a big sound of explosion which broke the front glass of shop," said Abbas Qasim, 38, the owner of a store on the street.

" I almost suffocated while I was eating and when I got out, I saw four cars burning," he said. "One of them was a van carrying students who just got back from the university. I rushed to help them with some locals but five of them were already dead and riddled with shrapnel."

Ali Mahmoud, 45, said that the explosion was the first in the neighborhood in two years.

"The American war planes were shelling most of the area all last night because of the Madhi Army," he said. "This car bomb is a message for us because our neighborhood is dominated by the Mahdi Army."

Violence also struck the Zafaraniya neighborhood, in the southern part of the capital, where gunmen in three cars opened fire on pedestrians, killing seven and wounding 16.

In the north of Iraq, a suicide bomber in a truck smashed through a barrier of armored vehicles in front of an Iraqi Army garrison in the al-Haramat neighborhood of Mosul. The bomb, when it detonated, killed 12 soldiers and wounded 42 other soldiers and civilians.

The wounded, American military officials said, "were evacuated to local medical facilities for treatment or treated on-site."

American forces also reported killing "12 terrorists," after they attacked ground troops east of Baquba.

In a statement, the military said that American troops had ordered the occupants of a building to come outside.

"Some complied but others remained inside," the statement said. "Coalition forces entered the building and were fired upon by several armed men."

The statement said that six of the men who were killed had shaved the hair off their bodies, which, the military said, was consistent "with final preparation for suicide operations."

But an official of the Baquba police said that American war planes had shelled the house, which belonged to Khudhaier Salem, a prominent senior figure in the region, killing 13 and wounding nine, including people in neighboring houses.

Also in Baquba, two children were killed when they picked up an improvised explosive device, police officials said.




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